Cochilco downgrade to U.S. $ 3.27 per pound price forecast for copper this year
Last April the Chilean Copper Commission had expected copper prices to average U.S. $ 3.57 per pound in 2013. For 2014 cut its estimate of U.S. $ 3.15 a pound, from an average of U.S. $ 3.32
Mining Minister Hernan de Solminihac, along with the Cochilco’s Director of Studies, Maria Cristina Betancourt, unveiled the international market copper trends report, which provides projections of consumption, production and price for 2013-2014.
The secretary of State reported that was adjusted downward the copper projection of average price for this year to U.S. 3.27 USD the pound, average value of a range between U.S. 3.24 USD-US 3.30 USD, regard to forecasting of April U.S. 3.57 USD per pound.
The downgrade is due to the anticipation of a surplus by 2013-2017.
To that it is also adds the greatest global economic uncertainty given the slowing growth in China and the expectations of an early finish monetary stimulus program in the United States.
For 2014 Cochilco lowered its estimate of U.S. $ 3.15 a pound in a range from $ 3.10 to $ 3.20, from an average of U.S. $ 3.32 expected in April.
In terms of market balance, the Mining minister said that this year it is expected a copper surplus of 209 000 tons and 310 000 tons for 2014.
The report prepared by Cochilco expected refined copper consumption in 2013 will hit 20.7 million tons, slightly less than forecast last March.
This to a lower consumption growth for China, which went from an expansion of 5% to 2.5%, and a zero estimated demand growth for the Eurozone, as opposed to an advanced fall of 7.9% in March.
By 2014, in turn, it is expected to refined copper world demand growth register a growth of 3%, totaling 21.3 million metric tons, of which 45% would correspond to China.
Copper Production
As for mine copper production worldwide, for this year it is expected to reach 17.6 million tons representing an increase of 3.2% compared to 2012. This increase would come primarily from the Republic of Congo (190,000 MT), Chile (98 thousand tons), Peru (90,000 MT), Australia (73,000 MT) and Zambia (71 000 MT).
By 2014, the global copper mine production would total 18.3 million tons, an increase of 3.9% compared to this year. The main countries that would contribute to this growth are Chile (160 thousand tons), Zambia (116 thousand MT) and Mongolia (80 000 MT).
In Chile it is expected that mine copper production reached 5.53 million tons this year, which means an increase of 98,000 tons from 2012. This increased production will be due to the entry into operations of Codelco’s Ministro Hales Mining, in the last quarter of 2013, increasing by 6% corporate production, with an increase of 9.9% from the production of Collahuasi, corresponding to 310 000 tons, and an increase of 2.2% in production at Escondida.
Source: La Tercera
