Experts reassess and reduce estimate of copper price for this year
17-Jul-2012 La Tercera – News
A 9% setback of copper in second quarter makes forecast for 2012 to be 5% lower than estimates published by Reuters in April when specialists foretold value of US$8,445 per ton
Global economic deceleration and reduced demand from China, main global metal consumer in the world, will be reducing copper price in 2012 after the collapse in second quarter which made forecasts for this year to be reassessed and reduced as revealed by a Reuter’s analysis last Monday.
31 analysts were consulted and they estimated an average price of US$8,003 per ton for 2012 and US$8,106 for 2013.
A 9% drawback of copper in second quarter makes forecast for 2012 to be 5% lower than estimates published by Reuters in April when specialists foretold value of US$8,445 per ton.
Forecast for 2012 is by far 9% lower than spot-contract-basis average in London Metal Exchange in 2011 which was US$8,812 per ton.
“We have gone through a long-term uncertainty time in 2012 which finally resulted in an anticipated depression even bigger than estimated for second quarter”, Barclays Capital Analyst, Nicholas Snowdon stated.
“It is clear the general uncertainty and the fact of not having signs of a final turn for economical figures in Chile is placing us in a continued uncertainty period still”, he added.
The three-month reference copper price in London collapsed in June going down to US$7,219.50, the lowest level in 2012, and has hardly increased 0.8% so far. After three years the metal had its first annual backward step in 2012.
Deceleration of China growth to its lowest level in three years (7.6%) during second quarter for sixth consecutive quarters has made nothing but increasing concern about the metal demand state.
Some data published early July showed copper imports in China – consuming almost 40% of metal worldwide – dropped 17.5% in May, to 346,223 tons, because factories reduced their requirements.
However, analysts expect measures adopted to secure economy stability start having effects during next months and improve the demand scenario for the rest of 2012 and 2013.
However, in spite of demand slowing down, metal production would not suffice to meet total requirements, which would in turn cause a 168,500 copper tons shortfall.
Analysts expect 9,000 tons surplus for 2013.
