Estimation of mining investment low $ 3,000 million for 2015 -2017 period
Investment in mining projects was adjusted downward by $ 3 billion, compared to the projection made in the last quarter of 2013, when the investments planned for the next three years totaled $ 29,477,000.
Since the previous government considers that the mining investment to 2020 would exceed over U.S. $ 100 billion, this figure has continued to be revised downwards. And although the official amount remains, it is estimated that government registry this year-already delayed and is expected to be present only in August to have a new review or “sincerity” as an authority of the sector says.
But investments continue to fall? With public information available for the first quarter of this year, Capital Goods Corporation (CBC) estimated that projects with schedule defined in mining totaled 102 (72 of them in the regions of Atacama and Antofagasta), of which only 46 are under construction. Of these, 39 are private projects.
With this volume and considering the estimate for the three years between 2015 and 2017, investment in mining projects to be materialized was adjusted downward by $ 3 billion, compared to the previous projection of CBC, held in the last quarter of 2013, when the investments planned for the next three years totaled $ 29,477,000. It is, in three months postponed or canceled 10.2% of mining investments that were predicted in the previous report that would be materialized between 2015 and 2017. So with the new estimate, the investments to be made in that period total $ 26.461 million, concentrated in 2015 and 2016.
“In general terms, the factors that most influence in reducing the estimation are the stay and delayed schedules megaprojects, after the energy, environmental and legal problems associated with it. Most of the portfolio of greenfield mining projects has been postponed to the end of the decade, which has significantly reduced the estimates to 2018 investment in this sector, “says Marcela Blázquez, from Corporation Capital Goods.
The 2015 year is the most affected one because, according to the entity the bank lost investments of U.S. $ 1.548 million, two thirds of which come from private sources projects.
“Another factor in reducing incident between reports may be in the less dynamism that was in the entry of new projects to land registry during the quarter, which impacts in a minor factor replacement investments,” says Blázquez.
That would also explain that by March 2014, with no defined program projects, those that are announced but not yet have deadlines for their development totaling more than the projects that do have deadlines to materialize, and now accounted for 119 initiatives totaling U.S. $ 59,385,000 in investments.
According to the classification of the CBC, the most harmed by this portfolio “without limits” is the Atacama region, which could receive investments of U.S. $ 29.503 million if it were to materialize these projects.
Among these projects without schedule or deadlines most relevant implementation says the CBC, are Los Pelambres Expansion (U.S. $ 7 billion), El Abra ($ 5 billion) and Caspiche (U.S. $ 4,800). None of them had been submitted to SEA.
Meanwhile, Cerro Casale (U.S. $ 6 billion) was approved at that time, but did not define their terms.
Chile versus Peru Portfolio
Until today, the official portfolio of mining projects in Chile towards 2021 stands at U.S. $ 112,500 million. According to official figures, total covered projects (with or without lead time) total half the portfolio of mining projects in the Pacific Alliance, totaling to four members-Chile, Peru, Mexico and Colombia-an amount U.S. $ 221 billion.
But the figures change if only the projects that have defined timetable counted. Here, depending on the estimate, the national portfolio falls more than 50%. For Sonami, for example, are only U.S. $ 50 billion those numbers, while the Mining Council has estimated that the portfolio of “a firm” projects totals only $ 30 billion.
With this, the volume of investments will be materialized in Chile is below Peruvian portfolio, as according to the National Society of Mining, Petroleum and Energy of that country, 50 mining projects are contemplated, with an investment of about U.S. $ 59,500 million.
Source: El Mercurio
