Energy costs fell 53% in September
Electricity is traded between generators at U.S. $ 96 per MWh in September, the lowest monthly average in two years. Increased water intake explains the change
A sharp decline in September showed marginal cost in the Central Interconnected System (SIC), averaging, according to figures up to September 28, from U.S. $ 96 per MWh in the barra Quillota 220 kV. This represents a decrease of 53% compared to the previous month, in which electricity is traded in the spot to an average of U.S. $ 202 MWh and a relief on the costs observed during the year, which remained a long while about U.S. $ 200 MWh .
Even more, in the last two years the energy never dropped from U.S. $ 100 per MWh, both due to the drought in the central zone and the lack of investment in efficient technologies.
According to a report from BCI Investments, this decrease is mainly explained by an increase in hydroelectric generation during the ninth month of the year, reaching a share-considering past units and reservoir-from 47.5% in the SIC, while that in August there were only represented 36%.
This is coupled with the consolidation of coal-fired generation fleet in the last two years, with more than 1,000 MW power admitted between Santa Maria (Colbun) Campiche (AES Gener) and Bocamina II (Endesa).
This result of September, according to the research team of the stock broker allow to anticipate an average annual price for energy around U.S. $ 162 per MWh.
“While we believe that the current situation is hardly sustainable, will certainly be more favorable than observed until August. Indeed, our estimate for this year is at U.S. $ 162 MWh average, level which demonstrates a scenario far more benign for the last four months of the year, with favorable reduced cost pressures for companies with higher water component “BCI raised in a report released during the day yesterday.
After learning of the latest report from snowmelt, presented by the CDEC-SIC, the consultant Valgesta last August had predicted marginal cost around U.S. $ 120 MWh for the medium term, a figure in line with the optimism shown by BCI.
“The current forecast of icing reported by the CDEC-SIC is favorable over the previous year, and this implies that the marginal costs in the short term could be deteriorating.
Regardless, it is expected that the medium term remain around U.S. $ 120 MWh by the limited availability of central water reservoir, among other factors, “said Energy Valgesta in its latest monthly report.
Source: Pulso
