Decline in the marginal costs of electricity by year-end is projected
Between U.S.$ 54 and U.S.$ 111 per MWh should average price of electricity in the spot in the second half, Systep projects. In July, the average cost soared above US$ 230.
The highest rainfall so far this year, which are close to the average of a normal year have not been able to keep the cost of energy in the spot market continue to rise, as has been the trend in recent dry years.
This due to the high temperature contribution records system, according to the Center for Economic Load Dispatch (CDEC) SIC data reached during the first half of June, a 64% stake in the Central Interconnected System, nearly doubling the hydroelectric participation (33.04% in the same period).
Despite this bleak scenario, the picture should change dramatically during the second half of the year in the central area. According to two projections from respected electrical consultants, the averages will drop significantly.-
These projections are based precisely on an expectation of increased hydroelectric generation, which will be enhanced by the end of year as temperatures rise, melting snow on the mountains and filling the reservoirs.
According to Systep (consulting firm directed by Hugh Rudnick) in a scenario of high LNG availability, average between July and November 2014 could stand at U.S. $ 54.4 per MWh, a figure that would rise to U.S. $ 67.7 per MWh between next December and June.
If the availability of natural gas for power generation is low, the average would be at US$ 78 per MWh between July and November and U.S. $ 111.5 between December and June.
“This projection considers Bocamina II Plant in operation since September 2014, according to the provisions of the CDEC-SIC in its latest schedule to 12 months, however there is no certainty that this well happen. Besides considering the unavailability fault of diesel power plant Ceniza (16.3 MW) and Peuchén hydroelectric Plant (81 MW) during the month of July and the unavailability fault of the Blanco hydroelectric plant (57 MW) to the month of February 2015, “says the consultant’s analysis.
Moreover, it has been removed from this projection the El Toro Plant-associated to Laja reservoir-until August, by the use restrictions on the lake being considered by the CDEC-SIC.
Thaws
They are also downward projections from Valgesta directed by Ramón Galaz. According to this consulting firm, after scored a peak during July, the values begin to recede and scores low near US$ 50 in November and then stabilize.
“The average marginal costs in SIC remained around U.S. $ 170 per MWh during the month of June. However, in early July, a noticeable increase was observed. This is due, among other factors, to the unavailability and / or restrictions of relevant thermal generating units, low availability of LNG for generation and consumption growth over the previous year, “said in its monthly report the Valgesta consulting firm.-
According to their forecast-crafted from software dual stochastic dynamic programming known by the acronym in English SDDP-prices on the spot will tend downward from July, month in which they have marked their peak to stabilize at values slightly than U.S. $ 100 per MWh, representing less than half the average so far in July.-
A recent report from Banchile Investments agrees with this view: “We continue to believe that the volumes of the reservoirs should gradually recover towards the second half of the year subject to the achievement of a higher level of precipitation. Meanwhile, weather experts maintain the probability of occurrence of an El Niño event in the spring of this year, but have recently reduced the chances that this is a phenomenon of strong intensity”, said the investment bank.-
Source: Pulso
