Cochilco projects price of $ 115 for molybdenum in 2015
The estimate for 2015 is very similar to the price projected for this year (between $ 11 and $ 13 a pound), despite expected a surplus of up to 25,000 tons.
The start-up of new projects and expansions as Sierra Gorda (Chile), Caserones (Chile), Las Bambas (Peru), from the middle of this year will carry the molybdenum market a shortage in 2,000 metric tons (MT ) in 2014 and a surplus of up to 25,000 MT in 2015, concludes a Cochilco’s Study.
The report projects for this year a price that would range from $ 11 to $ 13 per pound. Despite increased production, for 2015 Cochilco projects a slight decrease in the price, which is in the range 10-13 US $ / lb, with a mean value of 11.5 US $ / lb.
A 5.9% growth in demand for 2015, a China increase of 9.1%. The analysis estimates that consumption of molybdenum will expand 2.9% in Europe and 3.4% into the United States, rates slightly lower than year 2014.
Meanwhile, Japan would suffer a sharp slowdown in the growth rate, reaching this to 1.6% over 2014.
This year, according to the report, Japan’s demand would grow 5.2%, whereas, after zero growth in 2013, Europe and USA increments would again be 3.7% and 3.6% respectively.
With China leading, expanding 6.8% and concentrating 38% of global consumption, global demand would present a variation of 5.5% .-
For 2014 and 2015, Cochilco projects a global offer of 270 and 303 thousand MT, implying growth rates of -0.7% and 12%, respectively. These projections include recovery of catalysts molybdenum in the oil industry and disruption production.
The slight decrease in the estimated production for 2014 is due to the decline in primary production (mainly due to disruptions and closures of high cost mines in China) is not able to compensate for the increase in primary and secondary production, from both North America (mainly Endako and Climax) as well as Chile (mainly Codelco and Sierra Gorda) .
The highest estimated production for 2015 would come from an increase in Codelco’s operations, the ramp-up process of Sierra Gorda and to a lesser extent, Caserones and the entry of new projects such as Las Bambas in Peru. the impact of increased production of Endako and Climax would be maintained, says the analysis.
Source: Diario Estrategia
